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View Full Version : CO is headed straight towards a modest sucess!!


Archived Post
09-29-2009, 06:53 AM
CO appears to be on a track to meet, but not exceed their long term subscription goals. Based on available data like xfire and player counts, it appears that CO is shaping up to be in the same league as AoC and WAR. It will never as popular as ****, WoW, LOTRO, or EVE, but it is also not likely to fail any time soon. I hope you like meeting your expectations Cryptic! You made a game that was basically fun, but with some serious flaws. All aboard the train to okay-ville!

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 06:58 AM
Xfire is for PVPers and anime nerds. No one else uses it except to proclaim doom. DOOM DOOM DOOM.

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:08 AM
Xfire is for PVPers and anime nerds. No one else uses it except to proclaim doom. DOOM DOOM DOOM.

While xfire is not used by many people, it is still one of the best gauges of a MMOs success available. Do you know of a better source?

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:10 AM
While xfire is not used by many people, it is still one of the best gauges of a MMOs success available. Do you know of a better source?

Yes common sense?

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:11 AM
While xfire is not used by many people, it is still one of the best gauges of a MMOs success available. Do you know of a better source?

Flip a coin. Heads it's a winner, tails it's not :p

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:13 AM
i flipped a coin to tell me if xfire was a success

it landed on tails


FAIL

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:13 AM
While xfire is not used by many people, it is still one of the best gauges of a MMOs success available. Do you know of a better source?

Pff, no it's not. It may be one of the few gauges, but that doesn't make it even remotely accurate. Especially when its client has compatibility problems with CO.

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:13 AM
Citing XFire as reliable data...check
Putting **** in the same league as WoW...check
Putting LoTRO in the same league as WoW...check

TROLL HARDER. MAKE IT MORE SUBTLE.

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:16 AM
My guess is CO hovers at 150-200k subs once they get through the foundation work. Say a year or two of patches. I don't think the game is really designed to be huge, but to retain a loyal base and modest profits. Nothing wrong with that.

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:19 AM
CO appears to be on a track to meet, but not exceed their long term subscription goals. Based on available data like xfire and player counts, it appears that CO is shaping up to be in the same league as AoC and WAR. It will never as popular as ****, WoW, LOTRO, or EVE, but it is also not likely to fail any time soon. I hope you like meeting your expectations Cryptic! You made a game that was basically fun, but with some serious flaws. All aboard the train to okay-ville!

**** is popular?

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:20 AM
CO appears to be on a track to meet, but not exceed their long term subscription goals. Based on available data like xfire and player counts, it appears that CO is shaping up to be in the same league as AoC and WAR. It will never as popular as ****, WoW, LOTRO, or EVE, but it is also not likely to fail any time soon. I hope you like meeting your expectations Cryptic! You made a game that was basically fun, but with some serious flaws. All aboard the train to okay-ville!

Game has been out a month and you say "never". And these assumptions are based on what? Crossfire, which I never used, ever, and not one of my friends ever used... and player counts. At 1 month from release.

Can you spell "fail"?

EDIT: Based on my assessment done on a statistically relevant champion of 5 IT secretaries, female and in the 40-50 years old range, the MMO genre is doomed and will never make a buck, regardless of setting.

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:20 AM
My guess is CO hovers at 150-200k subs once they get through the foundation work. Say a year or two of patches. I don't think the game is really designed to be huge, but to retain a loyal base and modest profits. Nothing wrong with that.

This is what I am hoping for, enough money being made to keep new content in the pipeline for a niche title is all anyone could ask for in the current market.

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:20 AM
**** is popular?

**** is hyped. Expect people to mass leave it in 2 months to go back to WoW once they start getting the shakes (or Cataclysm launches)

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:20 AM
A buck is a buck.

A low but steady profit is still a profit.

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:25 AM
CO appears to be on a track to meet, but not exceed their long term subscription goals. Based on available data like xfire and player counts, it appears that CO is shaping up to be in the same league as AoC and WAR. It will never as popular as ****, WoW, LOTRO, or EVE, but it is also not likely to fail any time soon. I hope you like meeting your expectations Cryptic! You made a game that was basically fun, but with some serious flaws. All aboard the train to okay-ville!

LotRO, Eve, and **** all pale to WoW. It's telling that you lump them all in the same category. Trollmuch?

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:26 AM
He trolls ALOT!

Anywho, well a modest success is better than none. The game has gotten much better past the rocky start and people will start to see that it is doing well.

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:27 AM
Xfire is trash that only noobs use, and **** is a boring grindfest.

Sorry if I offended anyone :rolleyes:.

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:27 AM
You know users of XFire are down substantially since its release. I predict its failure.

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:29 AM
CO appears to be on a track to meet, but not exceed their long term subscription goals. Based on available data like xfire and player counts, it appears that CO is shaping up to be in the same league as AoC and WAR. It will never as popular as ****, WoW, LOTRO, or EVE, but it is also not likely to fail any time soon. I hope you like meeting your expectations Cryptic! You made a game that was basically fun, but with some serious flaws. All aboard the train to okay-ville!

That is my take on it also. And given that this was Cryptic's goals to have a moderate success they have succeeded. Despite the cries that the game isn't the next uber game that was never the primary goal of the devs. They have long stated that 100,000+ subscriptions is what they want and is sure looks like that is what they will have. This isn't to say that they wouldn't have been perfectly happy getting 500,000 or even 1,000,000 subscriptions but that was never their goal and people crying doom because their numbers are close to the 100,000 level miss that this was always their target goal.

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:30 AM
Question:

In political polls, they call a random sampling of say 2,000 people and come up with numbers + or - 3% or so.

Overall, if 1 of every 1,000, 5,000, or even 10,000 people use Xfire, it still provides a sample of the game playing public right?

So although inaccurate to whatever %, it should still be indicative of the gamer populace playing habits shouldn't it?

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:31 AM
Question:

In political polls, they call a random sampling of say 2,000 people and come up with numbers + or - 3% or so.

Overall, if 1 of every 1,000, 5,000, or even 10,000 people use Xfire, it still provides a sample of the game playing public right?

So although inaccurate to whatever %, it should still be indicative of the gamer populace playing habits shouldn't it?

Except certain groups of people are inclined to use XFire. If they did political polling at say...a monster truck rally, I think the results would be a bit skewed in one direction. See what I'm saying?

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:32 AM
While xfire is not used by many people, it is still one of the best gauges of a MMOs success available. Do you know of a better source?

Go look at XFire's 'numbers' on World of ******** and say that again with a straight face.



-np

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:34 AM
Except certain groups of people are inclined to use XFire. If they did political polling at say...a monster truck rally, I think the results would be a bit skewed in one direction. See what I'm saying?

That right wing conservatives like loud noises? HOW DARE YOU. :mad:

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:34 AM
Question:

In political polls, they call a random sampling of say 2,000 people and come up with numbers + or - 3% or so.

Overall, if 1 of every 1,000, 5,000, or even 10,000 people use Xfire, it still provides a sample of the game playing public right?

So although inaccurate to whatever %, it should still be indicative of the gamer populace playing habits shouldn't it?

The problem is XFire isn't a random sampling. It's opt-in, and tends to favor certain playstyles. Play styles that CO doesn't really cover that well ( Or the MMO market in general ).

So, all this shows is that the game isn't favored by the PvPers and raiders.

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:35 AM
Question:

In political polls, they call a random sampling of say 2,000 people and come up with numbers + or - 3% or so.

Overall, if 1 of every 1,000, 5,000, or even 10,000 people use Xfire, it still provides a sample of the game playing public right?

So although inaccurate to whatever %, it should still be indicative of the gamer populace playing habits shouldn't it?

That assumes that people who use Xfire are themselves a random sampling of the overall gamer population, which they aren't. The trends that Xfire tracks are only indicative of trends within the Xfire gaming population - not necessarily of the overall gaming population.

It's like when FOX News runs a political poll about, say, healthcare, and then reports that 98% of their viewers agree that Obama genetically engineered the H1N1 virus to kill white people. The data doesn't mean anything because they're only polling a very specific subset of people.

Now if you could somehow show that there is no meaningful difference between Xfire users and the overall gaming population, then the data would have more relevance in terms of the overall gaming population.

edit: Jesus these forums are quick. Clearly proof that the game is dying.

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:36 AM
I asked my dog what she thought of XFire and its value for statistical analysis.
She said it was a fail.
Statistically that is a 100% result with my method.

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:39 AM
That right wing conservatives like loud noises? HOW DARE YOU. :mad:

Hey now I didn't say WHICH political party would be favored!

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:40 AM
That assumes that people who use Xfire are themselves a random sampling of the overall gamer population, which they aren't. The trends that Xfire tracks are only indicative of trends within the Xfire gaming population - not necessarily of the overall gaming population.

It's like when FOX News runs a political poll about, say, healthcare, and then reports that 98% of their viewers agree that Obama genetically engineered the H1N1 virus to kill white people. The data doesn't mean anything because they're only polling a very specific subset of people.

But but... Fox News is fair and balanced! I know because they say so! :D

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:41 AM
I asked my dog what she thought of XFire and its value for statistical analysis.
She said it was a fail.
Statistically that is a 100% result with my method.

I LOL'd



1

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:42 AM
You know users of XFire are down substantially since its release. I predict its failure.

Lol, touch

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:42 AM
I asked my dog what she thought of XFire and its value for statistical analysis.
She said it was a fail.
Statistically that is a 100% result with my method.

I'll be back in a moment. My dog needs me to take her outside for a random sampling.

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:42 AM
Question:

In political polls, they call a random sampling of say 2,000 people and come up with numbers + or - 3% or so.

Overall, if 1 of every 1,000, 5,000, or even 10,000 people use Xfire, it still provides a sample of the game playing public right?

So although inaccurate to whatever %, it should still be indicative of the gamer populace playing habits shouldn't it?

XFire is not a random sampling. You also have no idea what % of the player base is using XFire, so you have no idea how accurate it is. This means XFire as a source of information is rubbish.

Political polls are carefully crafted to get accurate information (or skewed information depending on who's doing the poll and for what purpose). You would have to do something similar to get good data.

An in game poll, with questions designed to not skew results would be the best bet. Of those that responded, X% will continue to play, Y% plan on playing for another month, etc. Even there, that only considers the game's current status. As expansions or patches come out, the state of the game changes and you would need a new poll.

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:43 AM
My guess is CO hovers at 150-200k subs once they get through the foundation work. Say a year or two of patches. I don't think the game is really designed to be huge, but to retain a loyal base and modest profits. Nothing wrong with that.

Based on the easily checked zone numbers, I'd be very surprised if that were true.
Also month 1 is not an appropriate gauge of long-term subs.

CoH is *documented* to have hovered (with a slow but steady decline) around ~120k subs.
I'd be very surprised if CO were even half that by month #2.
Look at the few number of shards and how unpopulated they are.

I take quick counts 2-3 times a week, usually betweent 7-11pm eastern and during the day on weekends.
The most I've ever seen at one time was about 2,000 players across all zones.
Most times though it's much much fewer than that.
Although this isn't a direct correlation of how many subs are active, it seems to me to be a damn low number. If we consider go conservative and consider an average of 10% of the subbed population to be online at any one time, that's still only 20,000 active subs. That's dismally low for an MMO.

Quite frankly that's just a guess and I don't know how many subs that really translates to, but I don't see where you're getting 150-200k subs.
That would mean only 1% of the subscribers play at peak hours at any one time?

That's hardly believable.

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:45 AM
Question:

In political polls, they call a random sampling of say 2,000 people and come up with numbers + or - 3% or so.

Overall, if 1 of every 1,000, 5,000, or even 10,000 people use Xfire, it still provides a sample of the game playing public right?

So although inaccurate to whatever %, it should still be indicative of the gamer populace playing habits shouldn't it?

Not really. In political polls their 'random sampling' is based on demographics and political leanings of the participants so they will poll far more than 2,000 people to get their 2,000 samples. They also have statistical analysts working on the poll questions and evaluating the sample data, whereas Xfire has... yeah, not so much :)

Xfire is popular for a certain demographic of gamers. I don't use it, none of my gaming friends use it and you'll see a lot of people in community tech support forums for many games telling people to disable or uninstall it.

So, what is the demographic of Xfire users? Is it a good sample of gamers overall? My personal feelings on the matter is that people who use Xfire are people who want everybody to know what game they're playing. Now, if you're only playing one or two games with your friends anyway, why would you need a program to track that? In fact, unless you're the type of person who doesn't stick with anything for any extended period of time why would you need something like that at all when it would be easier to simply tell your friends what you're playing now?

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:46 AM
I can guess with more accuracy then Xfire has predicting CO trends, that VERY FEW people are even using it with CO. There is no point at all...it is useless.

For a dead and dying game this forum sure moves fast as hell...and forum contributers are always a small percentage of the games players. Using that much more accurate logic then xfire I would say CO is doing great for a new MMO!!

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:46 AM
edit: Jesus these forums are quick. Clearly proof that the game is dying.

I beg to differ.
I'm on the forums cuz I'm at work and can't play. If I could play, I'd be playing. So, alive forums mean the game is active :D

But... Personae's dog leaked to me that Microsoft is going for a hostile takeover of Mind, Inc.

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:46 AM
While xfire is not used by many people, it is still one of the best gauges of a MMOs success available. Do you know of a better source?


Speaking as someone with an analytical background - I have to point out that when trying to draw any kind of solid conclusion about something; a lack of accurate data is not a good reason to use innacurrate data in its place.

The most that someone can use an inaccurate data source for is to support a theory or an opinion (their "hypothesis")

These theories can often easily be de-bunked by the even the least skilled of debators, simply because of the sheer number of outlying factors contributing to the inaccuracies in a data source - each individual factor opening up its own area of nigh on endless debate and speculation.

Accurate data source = accurate conclusion.

Inaccurate data = "theory" "speculation" or "the best I could come up with". In other words - meaningless. Especially in this place.

In order for Xfire to have any analytical relevance whatsoever, you need another piece of vital information. Namely the proportion of each Games playerbase that use it. Without this you are just guessing about what Xfire's stats actually mean. On their own all Xfire's stats might tell me is that other games have a higher proportion of users using Xfire. Not that the ultimate number of players is higher.

You may assume that higher numbers of Xfire users equates to higher player numbers - but that is all it is, an assumption. You may even recount anecdotal "evidence" about times when Xfire has been correct - yet that itself is statistic that could be argued and matched with examples of where it wasn't.

At this point, noone even needs to go to the effort of proving you are wrong - simply because you haven't proven yourself to be right yet. Without other data I simply need to say "I don't agree" with your conclusions about what the Xfire stats say - and that it. Stalemate.

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:47 AM
Moderate success will hopefully be enough for their business model to continue for a year or more.

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:47 AM
CO appears to be on a track to meet, but not exceed their long term subscription goals. Based on available data like xfire and player counts, it appears that CO is shaping up to be in the same league as AoC and WAR. It will never as popular as ****, WoW, LOTRO, or EVE, but it is also not likely to fail any time soon. I hope you like meeting your expectations Cryptic! You made a game that was basically fun, but with some serious flaws. All aboard the train to okay-ville!

Yay! They are going to meet their goals and the game is fun! Everything is... wait, why does it sound like you're being derisive.

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:49 AM
Moderate success will hopefully be enough for their business model to continue for a year or more.

Well, if they met their goals, I would hope so. Otherwise, they are reeeaaaallllly bad at setting goals.

"Our goal is to get just enough subscriptions to fail at the end of year one."

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:50 AM
Yes common sense?

To paraphrase (read as: mangle) a famous quote;

Common sense is an uncommon virtue

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:50 AM
But... Personae's dog leaked to me that Microsoft is going for a hostile takeover of Mind, Inc.

...thats not all she leaked. :)

But she's a reliable paid informant. *throws a milk-bone*

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:54 AM
Based on the easily checked zone numbers, I'd be very surprised if that were true.
Also month 1 is not an appropriate gauge of long-term subs.

CoH is *documented* to have hovered (with a slow but steady decline) around ~120k subs.

Actually, CoH is "documented" to have peaked at somewhere around 170k subs, has had its drops, but has remained remarkably stead for a game its age. Yes, it's down around 120k now, but the slow bleed is an age factor. CoH peaked higher than it's launch rush and, at the time it launched, had the fastest population gain of any US MMO. 'course, WoW kinda blew that statistic away, but WoW's got a huge hype machine powering it.

Anyway, as I've always said, an American MMO that breaks 100k is successful. Especially considering how many chug along well below that.

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:55 AM
Question:

In political polls, they call a random sampling of say 2,000 people and come up with numbers + or - 3% or so.

Overall, if 1 of every 1,000, 5,000, or even 10,000 people use Xfire, it still provides a sample of the game playing public right?

So although inaccurate to whatever %, it should still be indicative of the gamer populace playing habits shouldn't it?

that really depends on who is using it.

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:56 AM
I'll be back in a moment. My dog needs me to take her outside for a random sampling.

Dogs are evil.

That is all.

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:56 AM
So when did they cut things like scientific method and statistical analysis from college curriculum?

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:56 AM
Well, if they met their goals, I would hope so. Otherwise, they are reeeaaaallllly bad at setting goals.

"Our goal is to get just enough subscriptions to fail at the end of year one."

LOL. I snickered to myself in my cubicle.

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 07:58 AM
Based on the easily checked zone numbers, I'd be very surprised if that were true.
Also month 1 is not an appropriate gauge of long-term subs.

CoH is *documented* to have hovered (with a slow but steady decline) around ~120k subs.
I'd be very surprised if CO were even half that by month #2.
Look at the few number of shards and how unpopulated they are.

I take quick counts 2-3 times a week, usually betweent 7-11pm eastern and during the day on weekends.
The most I've ever seen at one time was about 2,000 players across all zones.

Last night at 9:00pm CST (10pm your time) there were 4,300 people (give for take a few hundred) in Millenium City alone. (62+ instances with a rough average of 70 per instance). At the same time, I was in Fight Club with 4 other players, we were in instance #99. So with at least 99 instances of fight club and what, 2-3 people per instance? There's another 2-300 players in one mission, how many similar instances are out there? In the MC Powerhouse there were about 30 instances there when the server crashed last night (which was at about 9:30pm CST) so that's easily another what, 500 players or so in the powerhouse alone. I wasn't counting, I just remember that we were in instance 62 in MC, there could have been 100 instances for all I know, and most of them had between 70-100 players.

I think your math is a bit off :)

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 08:00 AM
Question:

In political polls, they call a random sampling of say 2,000 people and come up with numbers + or - 3% or so.

Overall, if 1 of every 1,000, 5,000, or even 10,000 people use Xfire, it still provides a sample of the game playing public right?

So although inaccurate to whatever %, it should still be indicative of the gamer populace playing habits shouldn't it?

Incorrect

A random sampling is just that, random. A sampling from a source which has a known bias for or against something is of no use whatsoever. Xfire's user base has a bias towards FPS games.

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 08:03 AM
Speaking as someone with an analytical background - I have to point out that when trying to draw any kind of solid conclusion about something; a lack of accurate data is not a good reason to use innacurrate data in its place.

The most that someone can use an inaccurate data source for is to support a theory or an opinion (their "hypothesis")

Yes. Meaning if you don't have a desk, you can pile a number of sheets of inaccurate data and put your hypothesis over it.

No data is better than wrong data, every IT engineer knows this. Inaccurate data can be or can not be useful depending on the confidence and the contest.

If you're trying to identify the epicenter of an earthquake, "inaccurate" data that points generically to somewhere in texas is better than nothing. You will at least reduce the uncertainty. Because the confidence interval is smaller than the interval of possible values.

But if you're trying to pinpoint the average temperature of the mediterranean sea, trying to gauge it by measuring the temperature near a steel production plant drain is not just inaccurate: it leads to completely off results! Because the interval of confidence is completely off from the seasonal temperature averages. You'll find a temp over 40C, whereas the average is around 15-18C (made up numbers, just to prove a point).

Since there's no way to gauge where the temp was measured, the entire theory is pointless, and the data is useless. As mentioned, you can use it to fill that gap under your table's legs.

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 08:14 AM
Yes. Meaning if you don't have a desk, you can pile a number of sheets of inaccurate data and put your hypothesis over it.

No data is better than wrong data, every IT engineer knows this. Inaccurate data can be or can not be useful depending on the confidence and the contest.

If you're trying to identify the epicenter of an earthquake, "inaccurate" data that points generically to somewhere in texas is better than nothing. You will at least reduce the uncertainty. Because the confidence interval is smaller than the interval of possible values.

But if you're trying to pinpoint the average temperature of the mediterranean sea, trying to gauge it by measuring the temperature near a steel production plant drain is not just inaccurate: it leads to completely off results! Because the interval of confidence is completely off from the seasonal temperature averages. You'll find a temp over 40C, whereas the average is around 15-18C (made up numbers, just to prove a point).

Since there's no way to gauge where the temp was measured, the entire theory is pointless, and the data is useless. As mentioned, you can use it to fill that gap under your table's legs.

I agree with you - however its difficult to compare your example to this.

Yes - its better to know your earthquake was "somewhere in texas" - however if you were using a methodology to establish that fact, comparable to how people are proposing to use Xfire stats in this case (i.e you know one side of the equasion - and then you blind guess at pretty much the entire other side of it) then I might argue that the earthquake was not, in fact, in Texas at all.

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 08:19 AM
Yes. Meaning if you don't have a desk, you can pile a number of sheets of inaccurate data and put your hypothesis over it.

No data is better than wrong data, every IT engineer knows this. Inaccurate data can be or can not be useful depending on the confidence and the contest.

If you're trying to identify the epicenter of an earthquake, "inaccurate" data that points generically to somewhere in texas is better than nothing. You will at least reduce the uncertainty. Because the confidence interval is smaller than the interval of possible values.

But if you're trying to pinpoint the average temperature of the mediterranean sea, trying to gauge it by measuring the temperature near a steel production plant drain is not just inaccurate: it leads to completely off results! Because the interval of confidence is completely off from the seasonal temperature averages. You'll find a temp over 40C, whereas the average is around 15-18C (made up numbers, just to prove a point).

Since there's no way to gauge where the temp was measured, the entire theory is pointless, and the data is useless. As mentioned, you can use it to fill that gap under your table's legs.

To bring a little more common sense into this discussion, let's keep in mind that all of this discussion about data and polling and statisical analysis are all being used to attempt to predict the future success of an entertainment product.

We can look at historical trends and get a picture of what has happened so far. We can look at current polling data (such as it is) and get a snap shot right now. We can look at industry trends to put those data in context. But none of it is especially predictive of the buying habits of fickle, irrational people six months from now when the game may or may not be completely different and there may or may not be new competitors in the market.

Any prediction is a guess. It might be more or less well-informed than other guesses, but in the end, there is a limit to the validity of any prediction, regardless of how valid the current data may or may not be. And the farther in the future you try to look, the less reliable the prediction becomes. I am fairly confident, for instance, in saying that CO will not fail tomorrow. But next month? Three months from now? Six? A year?

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 08:25 AM
What I think people neglect in their determination of success is an example found in NCSOFTs business model.

Currently everyone decries 200,000 subs as a failing game.

I had an article buried somewhere which detailed how NCSOFT relies on the Flop, or something similar (the portion of the gaming community which will switch games routinely every 9 mos or so.) This is about 200-300,000 persons within the community.

NCSOFT relies on the fact that a majority of the playerbase is not the "Stay with the Game for 5 years" variety but more belong within the Flop. Gamers seek a new experience periodically. NCSOFT tries to be the Mongolian Buffet of the gaming community (no pun intended).

They offer the SCIFI game; the Hero Game, multiple varietys of the fantasy MMO. They may not have a single game with a 12 million subscriber base, however when you look at having 7 titles each with 200-400,000 players; It adds up.

CO is simply a single title. I single dish on what is building Cryptic's buffet. I think if you look at what it offers it establishes a good foundation for future games.

The business models are changing.. the One Game to Rule them All is an outdated concept and will fail over time. How Cryptic carries this ball forward with what I feel is a successful formula and how they continue it's developement will be the true measure of success.

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 08:26 AM
While xfire is not used by many people, it is still one of the best gauges of a MMOs success available. Do you know of a better source?

I admit that my source of information is not credible, but in the face of no other source of information, I will have to rely on my non-credible source.


Really? Just because there isn't "another" source of info, doesn't mean you have to sit around and quote Xfire. It is a TERRIBLE tool in every regard for the type of information you are trying to gather. You may just have to admit that you do not have a source of information and stop guessing. If they want to tell us numbers, Cryptic will tell us numbers, in the end, only they know if they are meeting or missing their subscription goals, but people using Xfire as a means, in any way shape or form , is just terrible statistical analysis. Unless you want to proclaim doom, its great for proclaiming doom on any game.

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 08:26 AM
Speaking as someone with an analytical background - I have to point out that when trying to draw any kind of solid conclusion about something; a lack of accurate data is not a good reason to use innacurrate data in its place.

The most that someone can use an inaccurate data source for is to support a theory or an opinion (their "hypothesis")

These theories can often easily be de-bunked by the even the least skilled of debators, simply because of the sheer number of outlying factors contributing to the inaccuracies in a data source - each individual factor opening up its own area of nigh on endless debate and speculation.

Accurate data source = accurate conclusion.

Inaccurate data = "theory" "speculation" or "the best I could come up with". In other words - meaningless. Especially in this place.

In order for Xfire to have any analytical relevance whatsoever, you need another piece of vital information. Namely the proportion of each Games playerbase that use it. Without this you are just guessing about what Xfire's stats actually mean. On their own all Xfire's stats might tell me is that other games have a higher proportion of users using Xfire. Not that the ultimate number of players is higher.

You may assume that higher numbers of Xfire users equates to higher player numbers - but that is all it is, an assumption. You may even recount anecdotal "evidence" about times when Xfire has been correct - yet that itself is statistic that could be argued and matched with examples of where it wasn't.

At this point, noone even needs to go to the effort of proving you are wrong - simply because you haven't proven yourself to be right yet. Without other data I simply need to say "I don't agree" with your conclusions about what the Xfire stats say - and that it. Stalemate.

Logic, FTW!

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 08:31 AM
Logic, FTW!

Thanks!

Though actually - in these forums Logic looses with alarming frequency...

Archived Post
09-29-2009, 08:34 AM
One thing to consider: we can thank all these WoW tourists who popped in only for the first month and crapped all over it. Despite all their premonitions of failure (the most common super power on the Champions forums, apparently) their $50 donations probably all but paid off the development costs.

So, thanks for that! Have fun with your Murlocks.